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Posted: 2007-10-12 10:26 |
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I think that you've had really 2 events over the last couple months. You've had warned an equity event in August that the fed volatile the few weeks ago by lowing rates 50 bases points more than those expected.Then you've had credit worries.But in//in the equity market, some shares just be down so hard that you had a lot of people come into the market with a lot of waddle extra capital around that push shares up to an all time high. Yesterday you have some people as you have come more aboard bearish trend and the economy has still has the potential to roll over.Probably taking some money off the table at this point.
So essentially you think this is relative short term move. That/ There is some uncertainty that there has been a lot of worry, a lot of people is kinda in and then quickly back out again having made a profit. And it rather hard therefore presumably to discern the future direction of the Dow.
Charles it's absolutely correct.And I would say that there is a tone of certainty right now. I think that some financial shares and some of the companies are tired at the mortgage market do present compelling valuations right night for the truely long term investor,seen 3 to 5 years. But in the near term you've got a lot of credit term while the fed is ineffectively delayed maybe or trying to make a softer landing by lowering rates.But that remains to be seen. I think you've seen the housing data coming out and coming to a holiday season,retail vise It could be quite a weak because of that. So it's a really kind of vacancy approach with the market right now whether there are pockets of the tracked valuations.
What we striking on Monday was that we had two big banks city group in the United States.UBS in Switzerland coming out.And effectively cleaning up that balance sheets , taking big hits which was ugly and painful. But essentially moving forward with a lot of the bad news certainly already out of that.Their stocks went up quite sharply.Do you think that it will be quite easy for some of the other banks to cast off some of the subprime worries.
Well, we are seating UBS they are such huge large global money banks that by riding down that those loans they can basically move forward and reallocate capital into more high-return-business right now.Some of the smaller players are gonna who are more tied to the mortgage market. it's gonna take a little bit longer for them to play out. They are gonna have potentially some more reconstructions and more pains to go through on their balance sheets. But for the large players I think the market was expecting even worrisome just because of the severe equity crunch in August.And seen at least some clarity along those lines, you know, was a relief to some of the investors.
Let's look at the broader world scene because we are seeing a great deal of strength clearly in Asia.Do you suspect the Asia rather than Europe and suddenly rather than the United States is gonna be where the excitement will be, if you like for equity investors in next few months possibly is?
Well, Charles, I won't say either. The highest growth there is in the world right now are in Asia. Really you look at all the Asian countries you know clearly led by China which seems to be on everybody's tone these todays. But that's where the highest growth is. That's where so many of the manufactories, production, jobs of move. And in Asia it's basically reengineering I mean you can all think about Japan. 20 or 30 years ago when they were going through their growth period. I mean so many countries in Asia right now are in that type of growth phrase where just the average consumers are going to buy washing machines, driers,refrigerators ,cars. And they are gonna be huge amount of growth expenditure by them as they become more a developed countrie more than the 3rd world countries.
Posted: 2007-10-12 10:27 |
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