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Howling at the moon
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江小鱼
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Howling at the moon
《经济学人》的对中国嫦娥计划的评论,能看懂么
THIS week China showed off two of the trappings of an aspiring technological power. It pitched a satellite
into orbit around the moon and sent the share price of an internet firm into the stratosphere on the Hong
Kong exchange. Alibaba.com, China's biggest e-commerce site, raised almost as much money on its first
day of trading as Google drummed up in its flotation in 2004. Meanwhile, China's Chang'e 1 satellite,
launched in October, began its first lap of the moon, marking another step towards a manned lunar
mission.
China's technological enthusiasm is matched by that of India, which hopes to circle the moon with its own
satellite next year. As the special report in this issue shows, both countries believe they can succeed in
high-tech markets that America, Europe and Japan have long regarded as theirs by right.
These ambitions are viewed with alarm by the leading technological powers, not least America.
Policymakers and industry groups quake at the number of scientists and engineers the two populous
Asian countries turn out. They squeal about the imitation of ideas, both real and alleged, and lament the
emigration of jobs. In 2005 the American Electronics Association called for a “Sputnik Summit”, which it
hoped would stir the country to meet China's challenge, much as it responded to the Soviet Union's first
satellite 50 years ago. Daniel Rosen of China Strategic Advisory, a think-tank, has heard dark
murmurings on Capitol Hill, such as the suggestion that America should “nationalise whatever is left of
the machine-tool industry” to stop firms decamping overseas.
So much for the fears. The facts suggest an altogether cosier accommodation between the aspirants and
the incumbents. Japan and the West invent stuff and market it; emerging Asia makes stuff, customises it
and services it. Sure, that formula misses some important nuances (foreign firms are, for example, doing
some of their R&D in India and China). But insofar as any one sentence can sum up the elaborate
division of labour that has evolved between these vast economic blocks, that is it. And although China
and India have much to offer the world of technology, they have more still to gain from it.
The great bargain
Indeed, China's and India's ascent is much less scary than that of Japan and South Korea. Those two
David Angel
countries stole customers from complacent Western firms in the car, phone, electronics and computer
industries. But China and India see foreign firms as clients and investors, not just rivals. Likewise, foreign
firms eye China's and India's big and relatively open markets as a source of customers as well as
competition.
Besides, suppose America were to hold a Sputnik (or a Chang'e) summit. What would it conclude? That a
big country with a well-drilled cadre of white-coats can pull off some impressive scientific feats? The
Soviet Union's space-faring triumph did not betoken much of an economic threat.
Technological creativity is rooted in a country's institutions as well as its people's ingenuity. The rules
that govern a society must police ideas just enough to reward innovation, without stifling diffusion and
collaboration. China and India have yet to show they can crack that problem. “Governance is itself a kind
of technology,” Mr Rosen points out. So far, America's governance has served its high-tech firms
admirably well. Wild over-reaction, such as nationalising the machine-tool industry, would be rather like
crashing into the moon.
Posted: 2007-11-16 20:39 |
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Quote:
two David Angel countries
what is David Angel country ??
Posted: 2007-11-18 21:58 |
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