China's economic growth is set to slow to 9.5 percent next year, said the State Information Centre, a research institute under the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner.

The centre, which made the forecast in a report published by the official China Securities Journal on Monday, has forecast China's gross domestic product will rise 10.5 percent in 2006.

China's GDP has grown 10 percent or more every year since 2003.

The centre cited both domestic and global reasons.

"The world economy is likely to grow steadily or slow slightly, with average global oil prices slipping from 2006. Domestic cooling steps will be implemented and further fine tuning is expected to continue," it said.

"Under these conditions, GDP will increase by 9.5 percent, one percentage point slower than in 2006, with a potential growth range between 8 percent and 10 percent," it said.

In 2007, growth in fixed asset investment will drop 6.5 percentage points to 20 percent, while the consumer price index (CPI) is set to rise about 2 percent, the centre predicted.

Growth in exports will slow by nearly 10 percentage points to 15 percent while import growth will fall by 7.5 percentage points to 14 percent, it said. China's trade surplus is projected at around $176.9 billion in 2007.

The centre proposed that growth in broad M2 money supply should be limited to 16 percent, with new loans totalling 3 trillion yuan ($381 billion) and particularly strict controls on medium- and long-term lending. ($1=7.8645 Yuan)

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据国家发改委下属研究所国家信息中心预测，2007年中国经济增长速度将降至9.5％。

国家信息中心的这一预测研究报告在本周一的《中国证券报》上发表。据估计，今年中国的GDP总量将增长10.5％。

从2003年以来，中国每年的GDP增长率都在10％以上。

国家信息中心从国内和国际两方面对预测结果进行了分析：

“随着今年的国际油价逐渐下滑，世界经济可能将保持稳定增长或有所减慢。此外，我国也将采取进一步措施，防止经济过快增长。”

“在这种背景下，明年中国的GDP增长率将比今年低1个百分点，为9.5％。经济涨幅的变动范围预计在8％至10％之间。”

据预测，2007年中国固定资产投资的增速将下降6.5个百分点，跌至20％；消费者价格指数将上涨2％。

出口和进口的增长速度将分别下跌近10个百分点和7.5个百分点，降至15％和14％。此外，2007年的贸易顺差预计在1769亿左右。

国家信息中心提出，2007年我国广义货币供给的增幅应控制在16％，新贷款总额不应超过3万亿，尤其要严格控制中长期贷款。

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